以蔚来花钱的速度,即使傍上英特尔市值大涨37%也无济于事

单看标题你肯定以为笔者又要来黑蔚来了,其实恰恰相反,笔者非常欣赏蔚来,只是不太看好蔚来的未来。

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(BTW这个谐音取得挺好,让人第一次听说就能清晰的记住这家车厂的名字)。

11月5日,蔚来发公告称,与自动驾驶技术公司Mobileye达成战略合作,双方将基于蔚来第二代整车平台打造L4级别自动驾驶车型。通过此次合作,蔚来将成为全球首批在量产车型上实现L4级别自动驾驶的品牌。

股价回温的蔚来,是回光返照还是起死回生?

要知道Mobileye是什么背景?1999年成立,2014 年纽交所挂牌,2017年被英特尔153亿美元收购。与其他自动驾驶公司不同,Mobileye主要是依托计算机视觉,也就是多摄像头方案,成本低、技术落地快,从ADAS(辅助驾驶)到全自动驾驶,Mobileye都有涉及,在目前自动驾驶领域市占率高达70%。

此消息一出,蔚来的股票连续两日上涨37%,收于每股2.34美元。然而这对困境中的蔚来来说,只能算杯水车薪。要知道巅峰时期(刚上市那会)蔚来可是13.8美金每股。

笔者并不想就股票展开分析,也不想吹嘘L4自动驾驶技术有多牛逼,只想从个人角度谈谈对蔚来这个品牌的一些看法和体会。

笔者曾多次试乘试驾过蔚来的车车,周围也有两三个蔚来的车主朋友,es8也好、es6也罢、小毛病肯定是有,但车是好车,听他们说起也总是赞不绝口。尤其是蔚来的服务,用“汽车界的海底捞”来形容并不为过。

我举几个例子

1)以奢侈品的档次开店

蔚来的门店,基本都开在城市最繁华的商圈,租金不菲。比如我家附近的某处高端商场的临街商铺,豪华大落地窗,隔壁是Dior、阿玛尼等奢侈品店,之前是Tesla租下了一间100多平米的小店,现在易主变成蔚来的店,面积扩大了一倍,而且装修得更加高大上。

如果连Tesla都支撑不起的地方,蔚来又有何信心接盘呢?是蔚来汽车的毛利率更高?还是品牌的溢价能力更强呢?答案显而易见,烧钱撑品牌。作为一个后起之秀,要获得用户的认可,品牌逼格必须和Tesla一样,甚至更高,这意味蔚来要花大笔的钱去撑品牌。

2)不计成本的服务

说起买车的原因,身边的车主朋友都会不约而同的给我讲,蔚来的服务太好了。好到什么程度了?

你的车车路上没电了,蔚来服务团队开一个后援车来给你加。没错,就是之前被广泛吐槽的百公里要烧点20-30升柴油的改装依维柯发电车。先不论这台车的成本,单是养1个司机1个售后人员,没事整天待命也得要钱不是。关键是这项服务还是免费的。

你的车车坏了,蔚来服务团队给你拖走,还送你代步车。

你开车去机场,蔚来派工作人员帮你泊车,等你回来的时候,他再把车给你送过来,并且还免费帮你充满电,你只需预约接车和送车时间即可。同样这项服务也是免费。

你的车车出现了故障,系统遇到BUG,微信群里马上蹦出来十几个蔚来服务人员安抚你的情绪,积极妥善帮你解决。而且几乎是24小时待命。据一位蔚来前员工透露:蔚来每卖一辆车,就会为车主建一个专属微信群。群里有十几个人,从顾问、交付员、充电加电专员、维修专员、经理以及城市主管等等,涉及到售前售后的所有人员都在。车主有事,群里会迅速反馈。

这意味着,卖多少辆车就有多少个微信群。蔚来顾问每月每个群能拿到100元服务奖金,如果已经卖了300辆车,那每个月固定收入就有3万元,加上底薪、提成近5万元。不知道现在蔚来还是不是这个政策,如果是这个人力成本也太高了。

听到这里,我都有点不敢相信,没想到还有更夸张的。

为了促进销量,今年八月蔚来宣布,将为es6、es8首任车主提供终身免费换电,全国范围内、不限距离、不限次数、不限换电站服务。

11月,蔚来宣布旗下蔚来官方二手车平台正式上线,提供包括免费安装家充桩、免费换电、免费车联网、免费异地加电等车主权益。蔚来联合创始人、总裁秦力洪表示:蔚来二手车的残值率要相当于同级别的豪华燃油车水平,如果达不到,蔚来将出钱“兜底”。

你担心电动车几年后电池衰减,更换成本高,蔚来给你终身质保,免费换新。

你担心电动车残值率低,二手卖不起价钱,蔚来帮你兜底,比肩同级别豪华车残值率。

似乎,你所有的顾虑,蔚来都帮你解决了;蔚来给现任车主们提供的服务,也绝对是车厂里最好的。可是为啥我还是觉得心里没底呢?

记得那次我与两位蔚来车主聊天,最后达成一个共识:只要蔚来公司不垮,那蔚来汽车绝对是当前最值得购买的电动车,没有之一。

开公司的目的就是赚钱,不是做慈善,这是众所周知的道理。可当我询问蔚来车主们是否有在服务上花钱时,得到的答复是否定的。

这意味着,蔚来公司赚钱的途径只有一个,就是卖车。可是卖车的利润有多少呢?我不知道,我只知道传统车厂在卖车和服务上赚的钱,几乎是1:1。而且相同档次的电动车,指电池容量、电机马力基本相同,也都配置双叉臂悬挂、空气减震等,豪华配置、如NAPA真皮座椅、电椅通风加热、豪华音响等也一应俱全的前提下,Tesla至少要90多万元,而蔚来只要40多万。

再看看蔚来的销量,10月份大涨的情况下,才2526台。我怎么算,都觉得蔚来会亏掉裤衩。

或许蔚来在下一盘很大棋,外人看不懂。为了所谓的创新、所谓的互联网思维造车、汽车新势力等头衔,蔚来正在弯道超车。

反正我是看不懂,各位怎么看呢?